2015: Akinyemi Writes Jonathan, Buhari Over Impending Danger As Post-election Violence Looms

Professor Bolaji Akinyemi
Professor Bolaji Akinyemi

Deputy Chairman, 2014 National Conference, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, has alerted Nigerians of dangers he perceived ahead of the February 2015 general elections. According to him, some Nigerians are committed to seeing Nigeria disintegrate.

Akinyemi, a former Foreign Minister, in his bid to forestall the dangers ahead has therefore written a letter, dated December 16, 2014, to the two presidential candidates for next year’s election – President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); and General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

He noted in the letter that he saw the violence that followed the 2011 elections coming, fears he shared with the National Security Adviser at the time, General Andrew Azazi, who died in 2012. Akinyemi however said his suggestions were not acted upon. The violence that followed led to loss of lives and properties.

Akinyemi noted that the country has gotten to a similar stage now and he would like actions to be taken to forestall a repeat of the 2011 post-election violence after the 2015 elections. As he predicts, if Jonathan wins, violence will begin in the North. However, if Buhari wins, violence will erupt in the Niger Delta. “I don’t believe that we need rocket science to make this prediction,” he wrote.

His letter read:

“Your Excellencies,

“Shortly after his appointment as National Security Adviser, General Andrew Azazi, at his own request, met with me in my office in Lagos to discuss the state of the nation. It was on the eve of the 2011 elections. I told the General that I was not worried about the conduct of the elections or about the outcome which I expected President Jonathan to win.

“What really worried me, I told the General, was the management of the violence that would ensue after the elections. I was sure that there would be violence on a massive scale and I made some suggestions to him about how I thought the violence could be contained.

“My suggestions were not acted upon. The elections occurred, President Jonathan won and all hell broke loose. Missing were the conflict-controlled measures which I had discussed with General Azazi.

“Now we are back at the same crossroads again, except this time is more precarious and dangerous than the last time.

“Firstly, we have this very notorious prediction from United States semi-official sources that the world is expecting a cataclysmic meltdown of the Nigerian nation come 2015. Of course, most Nigerians have taken umbrage at this prediction for their country. But there are Nigerians who are indifferent to the outcome of this prediction.

“One of my low moments during the just concluded 2014 National Conference was when in an attempt to break an impasse, I painted a grim picture of devastation which would follow a breakdown of the Nigerian state, to which a delegate between 45 and 55 years old replied: ‘So what?’

“I thought to myself, here is a man who would probably run away to a neighbouring country at the boom of the first gun but was callously indifferent to the fate of the youths, women and children who would be caught in the middle.

“Secondly, the certainty of violence after the 2015 elections is higher than it was in 2011. If President Jonathan wins, the North would erupt into violence as it did in 2011. If General Buhari wins, the Niger Delta will erupt into violence. I don’t believe that we need rocket science to make this prediction.

“The violence of 2015 is going to be horrendous and worse than the one of 2011 for the simple reason that the illegal, massive importation of weapons into the country has reached such alarming proportions that I really wonder which is better armed, the militias on one hand or the official armed forces on the other hand.

“For the avoidance of doubt, I am not imputing the illegal importation of arms to any particular zone. Some years ago, some Iranians were arrested for bringing in a shipload of weapons into Lagos harbour. They were tried and jailed and then smuggled out of the country.

“Some months ago, sophisticated weapons were discovered buried in the basement of a Kano house. All these have now fallen below the radar. These are the ones we know about. How many do we not know about?

“There are states and movements out there, African and non-African, which do not mean well for the Nigerian state, which wish Nigeria to dissolve into a theatre of bloodshed, gore and instability.

“They will succeed if we continue the politics of making enemies of ourselves and friends of our enemies.

Way forward
“The first step forward is for the two Presidential candidates to meet and sign a Memorandum of Undertaking that will commit both to:

– A civil and peaceful campaign, devoid of threats.
– A commitment to preach peaceful elections to their supporters.
– A commitment to control their supporters after the elections. Supporters of whoever loses should be entitled to peaceful protests but not to violent protests.

“I also appeal to the following:
– The Sultan, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III
– The Emir of Kano, Alhaji Muhammad Sanusi II
– The Lamido of Adamawa, Alhaji Muhammadu Barkindo Mustapha
– The Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade
– The Oba of Benin, OmoN’oba Erediauwa
– Chief Emeka Anyaoku
– Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor
– Pastor Enoch Adeboye
– His Excellency, General Yakubu Gowon
– His Excellency General Abubakar Abdulsalami, to facilitate the pre-election meeting between the candidates, the preparation of the Memorandum of Undertaking and as a Council of Wisemen to assist in managing the post-election conflicts.

“Yours sincerely,

“Former Nigerian Foreign Minister and Deputy Chairman, 2014 National Conference.”