2015 Election: Why General Buhari Will Lose Once Again

By

 

Dibie Kingsley Chukwuma

 

Most times when you make any statement that suggest anything but a victory for General Muhammadu Buhari before or during an election period in a gathering of his supporters fondly called “Buharist”, If you are lucky not to get lynched, man-handled or sent death threats, you are either greeted with insults or treated with disdain like someone who has just blasphemed against a holy prophet. In the best possible scenario, you might be lucky to get someone reasonable enough to ask “where are you from? The South-South right? No wonder, na Jonathan dem brother na.” Such statements leaves me wondering, does one´s place of origin in Nigeria automatically disqualifies him or her from objectively holding opinion on national issues? Putting National interest first, will it not be unfair to assume that someone like Nasir El-Rufai is unqualified to comment on President Jonathan candidacy simply because he is from the North-West geo-political Zone of Nigeria?

 

Like many Africans in the diaspora who share the experience of living far away from home, i have come to see that our relationships are hardly influenced by tribe,ethnic group or country of origin. Like most people I have met, we have learnt to first be Africans before our tribe or nationality. It is from this position I will crave the understanding of all particularly supporters of General Muhammadu Buhari to allow me to exercise my fundamental human rights guaranteed under the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to comment on the political dynamics of my nation as it relates to the candidacy of the APC presidential candidate “General Muhammadu Buhari” in the 2015 General election.

 

It is no news that General Buhari previously contested the presidential election in 2003 against ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and lost. In 2007 against Late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and lost. And in 2011 against incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan which he also lost. By virtue of the number of presidential elections General Buhari has participated in as  presidential candidate of different parties, he is not only the most experienced candidate in Nigeria´s election history, but there should be little or nothing anyone should be able to tell him about presidential elections in Nigeria. To say the least, with his wealth of experience in the last 10 years, he is in a better position to school anyone interested in the subject matter particularly when it comes to the aspect of defeat and knowing when the odds are against you and cannot change in a presidential contest. Hence, when the General said in 2011 “This campaign is the third and last one for me since after it I will not present myself again for election into the office of the president,” by default, I assumed he had finally come to the reality of the odds against him. Thus, to be told that the General was pressured to come back and contest, defiles all sense of reason.

 

In the presiding election before 2007, I had no strong thoughts as to how General Buhari would fare in the election. But in 2007, I was more than convinced he would lose. Likewise in 2011 which gave me the audacity to openly share my opinion whenever and wherever the opportunity presented itself. Just like in previous years before 2011, it is with that same conviction I am predicting once again that General Muhamadu Buhari will lose again come 14th, February 2015. To ascribe his perpetual defeat to one factor will not only be unfair to history, but a total disregard to the truth and an injustice to the individuals, circumstances and scenarios that have characterised the Nigerian political landscape in the last couple of years and continue to play out against him.  It is in this understanding that in the next couple of weeks before February 14th, I will try to bring to the fore some of the individual factors as they relate to the subject matter of a Buhari presidential campaign.

 

  1. To begin with, as of today, Many “Buharist” will agree with me that General Buhari is an anti-corruption crusader who has showed that he would stop at nothing in fighting corruption. His antecedents as military head of state speak for him. But in the same vein, many of them might disagree when I say that for the General, this is a factor that has over the years influenced his continual failure in every election since 2003. In August 1985, General Buhari was overthrowned by General Ibrahim Badamosi Babaginda, the same man credited to being instrumental for him to be Head of State on the eve of 1984. Before the coup by Gen Babaginda, it was rumoured that Gen. Buhari had planned to retire some top military officers on allegation of corruption and Gen. IBB was to be among those to be retired. And as we would say today, corruption fought back. Once the coup took place, Buhari was then detained in Benin City until 1988.

 

In the years preceding the government of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and thereafter, Gen. IBB and his friends have not only become rich, powerful and influential figures, but also indispensable power brokers who have remained relevant through alleged corrupt practices.  If Gen. Buhari wants to really fight corruption, who are those that he will be fighting? Will Gen. IBB be spared?

No offence, but if Gen. IBB be the man that he is, it is one reason Gen. Buhari must loose again come 2015.

7 Comments

  • Dibie Kingsley Chukwuma, the inference I can draw from your opinion is that come 2015, somebody is going to ring the election. Do you think that person(s) will get away with it? You seem to have taken out of the equation the citizens of Nigeria. Nigerians of 1999, 2011 or years gone by are not Nigerians of today. You can fool some people sometimes but you cannot fool them all the time. Nigerians have seen the light and will stand up for their right. Nigerians within and outside are fed up with leaders perpetuating corruption! They are fed up with those bringing Nigeria into disrepute! Imagine living in a country rated the most corrupt in the world, where billions of dollars have been spent on electricity but no electricity, where some people consider themselves as above the law, where stealing is not considered a crime, where unemployment is just too high, where people get away with murder, etc. Do you truly believe that true Nigerians will allow these nonsense to continue come 2015? I doubt it. Nigerians are looking forward to a peaceful election in 2015 and NO ringing.

  • 99.9% of nigerians is corrupt. So stop accusing our leaders of corruption. We followers too are corrupt one way or d other.

  • We need a change and that will only come from a leader whom is less corrupt. It is hightime nigerians put aside ethnicity,religion and tribe and push for better state(nigeria). It is time for our corrupt leaders to be on the run,let’s give Buhari a chance because he deserves it. He is a better candidate…

  • I thought you were coming up with something new. All the same old story of one corrupt person will not allow some other to win election because his interest is at stake. Well, it is ur opinion.U must have taking the responsibility for this opinion for a fee. But come to think of it, if the corrupt individuals continue to hold the the rest of us in bandage what is ur profit? Ur gain is what u earn by this write up. May those meant evil for this country never witness peace in the life of this and the next world. I pray to God to disgrace those whose opinions are born out of sentiments and selfish desires. Amen.

  • I thought you were coming up with something new. All the same old story of one corrupt person will not allow some other to win election because his interest is at stake. Well, it is ur opinion.U must have taking the responsibility for this opinion for a fee. But come to think of it, if the corrupt individuals continue to hold the the rest of us in bandage what is ur profit? Ur gain is what u earn by this write up. May those meant evil for this country never witness peace in the life of this and the next world. I pray to God to disgrace those whose opinions are born out of sentiments and selfish desires. Amen.

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  • jonathan will win 2015, after him, david mark the senate president to break the yoke of ethnic setback and tribal prejudice and reawaken the hope for ethnic minority group of becoming president too. nigeria belong to all of us.

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