Why Jonathan Will Win Presidential Election In February – Brookings Instituion


A US-based policy think-tank, the Brookings Institution has rated President Goodluck Jonathan as favourite to win the February 14 presidential election.

In a report by the institute, published under the Africa Growth Initiative with the title: “The 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria: The issues and challenges,” Brookings said Jonathan’s Peoples Domocratic Party (PDP) was more likely to win the February election.
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The paper, authored by Jideofor Adibe, a Senior Lecturer at Nasarawa State University, dwelt on several aspects of the Nigerian election. It noted that “though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favour President Jonathan.”

Brookings juxtaposed the two main political parties, the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC), highlighting their strengths and weaknesses before concluding that the APC will be unable to unseat the PDP in the February elections.

“After suffering a wave of defections to the APC last year, including five of its governors, the PDP seems to have rebounded strongly. In the battleground South-West, for instance, the party won recent governorship elections in Ekiti State and got the governor of Ondo State to defect from the Labour Party to the PDP.

“The party is especially strong in the South-South (where Jonathan comes from), the South-East and among Christians in the North. Again, while the PDP remains weak in the Muslim North, it has gained new influential members who decamped from the APC including the former governors of Kano and Borno States. And, of course, the PDP has power of incumbency.

“Furthermore, of the 36 states in the country, the PDP has 21 governors while APC has 14. The PDP also holds comfortable majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

“APC gets much of its strength from tapping into Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim North and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments,” the report stated.

nigeria elections adibe


  1. True talk, muslims from the north are just after power and the yorubas are after national cake (tribalistic). What we need is togetherness

  2. in the days of moses
    when he was to lead the children of israEL TO THE PROMISE LAND
    HE encountyer some issues along the line
    Mr president the issues, problem and encounter of today in nigeria is just for a while
    and the time has come for the CHANGE TO COME because we are already close to the PROMISE LAND

  3. After the civil war, they yorubas and the fulanis shared the country amongst economic and power, but as God will have it things are changing and they are not happy

  4. The fulanis and the yorubas think that nigeria belongs to them. Things are changing and they think the can change it back to favour them

  5. The writer was obviously paid to do this. How can you project the outcome of an election based on these flimsy criteria. People are wiser now! People like you and your principals are the reasons why our nation is such a MESS

  6. Seat there and be forecasting rubbish that has no bearing with the electorates in Nigeria. You will be shocked beyond imagination that Jonathan will loose the election woefully

  7. Uptil now Somepeople don’t really they are. How can I support someone I don’t know what he is doin for 6 good years people have been suffering for unemployment,hunger and killing of people ,No development economically and bad Infrastructure yet some ignorrants like you people who have no focus and no aim in life are still saying support to GEJ.its really a pity that some people still like animals with no future of themselves and that of their generation.am jst wondering this kind of people exist after all these sufferings that we in.how can people be seeing black and to me that it is white,it is not good .all these things that are hapening in this country you cannot swear before you own Lord that you are enjoying it.if not you your Brother might be a graduate with no Job for many years,if not you,the people in your community are suppossed to be enjoying free edication and good infrastructure and you are there tribalizing and culturising yourself and killing yourself underneath with nothing to show to the public as good result of your tribalisation, culturization and sectionalism.

  8. “APC gets much of its strength from tapping into Jonathan sentiments in the muslim north and grievances among the yoruba who feel the Jonathan administration has ignored them” Statement on point

  9. Despite shameless APC propaganda, void of any truth, on GEJ’s track record, and despite their vain promises roughly gathered under the banner of “change” – never back with a proper program – many are aware of the truth. An no matter how much gutter press claims GMB has already won, February will show the world that Nigerians were not fooled, that they have their vote to a democrat and a honest man : Goodluck Jonathan.

  10. What a relief to read a good and non-biased article about the upcoming elections. I do believe that it is past time for Buhari’s chance for change as his shot was in 1983 and he failed and ultimately stumbled, being deposed by his own men. Electing him now would be a mistake when you have a candidate like Goodluck Jonathan against him.

  11. Brookings has it right, and the numbers prove that Jonathan is the only safe and reasonable choice for Nigeria in February. Even without the popularity and number of state governors, Jonathan has led the country to its status as Africa’s largest economy, improving infrastructure, empowering youth, adding jobs and diversifying the economy. He has managed to work around the decades-long corruption to get much done in just five years — can Buhari promise the same? I have seen no hard evidence of any plan to improve the country; the former general and dictator can only hope to militarize it.

  12. I say this as a Pan Africanist who believes totally in One Nigeria, former life-long siddon look Nigerian. I say this as a proud Nigerian . I speak as someone who knows it’s time to forget tribal loyalty, party loyalty, ideology and pride and put the country first. Jonathan is our last best chance. He’s worth laying it all on the line for.

  13. This is a man who does what works, rather than scoring ideological points. In other words he is the quintessential non-ideological pragmatic Nigerian. He will (thank God!) disappoint ideologues and purists of the left and the right. GEJ for Pesident 2015 till 2019.

  14. GEJ WILL WIN MORE THAN 22 STATE, 5 in the s/e, 6 in the s/s, 3 in the s/w, 4 in the midle belt, 3 in the N/e and Abuja. Now tell tomorrow Buhari APC will say election IS RIng that is why apc is harrassing every body to take power by force no way for them. Please my Good people of PDP IN THE NORTH vote for PDP AT ALL LEVELS AT LEAST BY 2019 A PDP CAnDidATE forM north will take over POWER no selfish . Just pray GEJ ALWAYS AMEN Vote Pdp at all levels


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