Ask any football bettor what the trickiest kind of bet is, and he will tell you “a bet on a newly promoted side.”
If you don’t believe him, just go ahead and stake your money on one.
I’d suggest Leeds United. They just got promoted into the English top-tier division, and you can bet on them on Sbobet top.
However, do bear in mind that if you choose to bet against them when they’re playing against the elite teams, they can “pull an upset” on you. And when you decide to be more cautious and stake your money on them because of their previous results, they can lose in grand style.
To put simply, those teams are every bettor’s biggest nightmare. As a result, most bettors try as much as possible to avoid them in their selections.
But guess what?
By avoiding them, you might be missing out on so many opportunities to win money.
Read on to find out how to bet on them.
PS: We’ll be making use of the word “elites” many times in this post. Please note that by “elites”, we mean the league’s biggest teams.
How to bet on a newly promoted football side
The most logical thing to do when betting on a newly promoted side is to “bet against them” anytime they’re playing against an elite team.
For example, when a team like Leeds United or Fulham (both just got promoted this season) is playing against an elite team like Liverpool or Arsenal, you should stake your money on the two latter teams to win.
In case you missed it, Liverpool defeated Leeds United 4:3, and Arsenal defeated Fulham 0:3.
So, the logic is pretty simple!
However, don’t take my word for it because this is football, and nothing is written in the stars.
In reality, newly promoted football teams do defy the odds and upset the elite teams.
How often? You may wonder!
How often do promoted teams defy the odds against elite teams?
They do so scarcely!
Let’s take the English Premier League, for instance. In the periods between the 2010/11 season and the 2018/19 season, the average point per game a newly promoted side got from a matchup against an elite team was 0.79. And their win % differential was 20.54%.
What these numbers tell us is that newly promoted sides struggle so much against the league’s big boys.
But not against the rest of the division!
Moving away from the elite teams (the top-six teams in the case of England), newly promoted teams fared better against the rest of the division – the non-elites.
Using the same timeframe as before, our study revealed that the average points per game newly promoted sides took from games against non-elite teams were more than 1.2, and their win % differential was also above 30%.
By and large, it is safe to say that the best time to bet on a newly promoted side is when they’re playing against a non-elite team, most especially when they’re playing on their own turf.
Things to consider when betting on a newly promoted side
Having established how newly-promoted sides fare against elite and non-elite teams, it’s important to note the factors to consider before placing a bet on them at all.
Their form before promotion
If there’s anything we can learn from the stories of Leicester City, Bournemouth, Burnley, Wolves, and now Leeds United, it is that newly promoted teams who were champions in their previous season are often a force to be reckoned with upon promotion.
In fact, with the exception of Newcastle and Norwich, every other team that gained promotion by being champions came into the Premier League with a bang!
Leicester won the league. Wolves went to the Europa League. Burnley have stayed in the league (upsetting the big boys regularly), and now everyone is tipping Leeds for success.
By and large, you can expect a champion to do so well when they get promoted.
Most teams will look to strengthen following promotion to a new league. They’ll look for players with experience of that division and ones that can provide that extra bit of quality to ensure survival.
Research the players that have been brought in and how much they have spent.
After a successful season and promotion, newly promoted teams are often raided by bigger teams, signing up the team’s star striker or even manager. Without them, they could prove to be an entirely different side, particularly if it’s a player that a system is built around.
The Rest of the Teams in the Division
Consider the teams already in the division and their teams, circumstances, and form. For example, if other teams are struggling financially or were lucky to survive last season, you may fancy the chances of the newly promoted sides when they’re playing against such teams.